by Jeremy Young | 6/03/2008 06:39:00 PM
(Cross-posted at Open Left.)

With Barack Obama poised to clinch the Democratic nomination tonight, I thought it was time for a short retrospective look at the number of times an anti-establishment candidate has won the Democratic presidential nomination, beginning with the first race of the primary era in 1972.

1972
Establishment candidate: Edmund Muskie
Anti-establishment candidates: George Wallace, George McGovern
Others: Hubert Humphrey
Winner: McGovern (anti-establishment) -- Nixon took out Muskie by spreading false rumors about him and making him cry in front of the news media, then an assassin paralyzed Wallace and knocked him out of the race

1976
Establishment candidates: Morris Udall, Henry "Scoop" Jackson
Anti-establishment candidates: Jimmy Carter
Others: George Wallace, Frank Church, Jerry Brown, many others
Winner: Carter (anti-establishment) -- defeated his opponents one by one through expert use of the primary system



1980
Establishment candidate: Jimmy Carter
Anti-establishment candidate: Ted Kennedy
Winner: Carter (establishment)

1984
Establishment candidate: Walter Mondale
Anti-establishment candidates: Gary Hart, Jesse Jackson
Others: John Glenn, Ernest Hollings, George McGovern, others
Winner: Mondale (establishment)

1988
Establishment candidate: Michael Dukakis
Anti-establishment candidates: Jesse Jackson, Paul Simon, Bruce Babbitt, Dick Gephardt
Others: Joseph Biden, Al Gore
Winner: Dukakis (establishment)

1992
Establishment candidates: Bill Clinton, Paul Tsongas, Bob Kerrey
Anti-establishment candidates: Tom Harkin, Jerry Brown
Winner: Clinton (establishment)

1996
Establishment candidate: Bill Clinton
Winner: Clinton (establishment)

2000
Establishment candidate: Al Gore
Anti-establishment candidate: Bill Bradley
Winner: Gore (establishment)

2004
Establishment candidates: John Kerry, Joseph Lieberman
Anti-establishment candidates: Howard Dean, Wesley Clark
Others: John Edwards, Dick Gephardt
Winner: Kerry (establishment)

2008
Establishment candidate: Hillary Clinton
Anti-establishment candidates: Barack Obama, John Edwards
Others: Bill Richardson, Joseph Biden, Christopher Dodd
Winner: Obama (anti-establishment) -- by outcampaigning his opponents

Yes, folks -- we've just snapped a thirty-two year winning streak by establishment candidates in Democratic presidential primaries. Go Obama!

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5 Comments:


Blogger Mentarch on 6/04/2008 10:32 AM:

Now is the moment, now is the time ...

 

Blogger idiosynchronic on 6/05/2008 11:54 PM:

I just pray we have something greater than Carter (the president, not the humanitarian) and McGovern as the nominee.

I'm still slowly reading Fear and Loathing: On The Campaign Trail '72 in 'comparitive' time.

Muskie was a time bomb waiting to happen - while the dirty tricks squad may have authored the letter, Sunshine Ed was disconnected, disoriented and certainly wearing a target on his back.

So what about 1968, '64 (obvious) and 1960 in particular? Was Kennedy or LBJ the establishment candidate?

 

Blogger Jeremy Young on 6/06/2008 12:13 AM:

I personally prefer both Carter and McGovern to Obama -- though I'll readily acknowledge that Obama's a more savvy politician than either of them.

In 1968, Humphrey was the establishment candidate, while Kennedy and McCarthy were anti-establishment candidates. In 1960, both Kennedy and Johnson were establishment candidates, while Adlai Stevenson was the leading anti-establishment candidate.

Mind you, the establishment candidate isn't necessarily bad. In fact, had I been alive and politically active from 1960 to the present, I would have voted for the establishment candidate four times: Udall against Carter in 1976; Carter against Kennedy in 1980; Mondale against Hart in 1984; and Gore against Bradley in 2000 (though, to my everlasting chagrin, who I DID support over both of them in 2000 was McCain).

 

Anonymous human on 6/06/2008 8:49 AM:

Clinton was establishment in 1992, really?

 

Blogger Jeremy Young on 6/06/2008 11:32 AM:

Well, he definitely wasn't anti-establishment. I'd consider ranking him as "other" only because Tsongas was considered at one point to have locked it up. I feel pretty comfortable in saying that the anti-establishment candidates that year were Harkin and, later, Brown.