by Jeremy Young | 4/05/2008 05:28:00 PM


Get ready for President Obama, folks -- this one's over.

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3 Comments:


Blogger Ahistoricality on 4/05/2008 5:52 PM:

So you think a credible Libertarian candidacy could split the Republican vote? Draw off those Ron Paul voters?


It will be interesting to watch the libertarians choose between Barr and Gravel....

 

Blogger Jeremy Young on 4/05/2008 11:06 PM:

Here's what it will do, presuming Barr wins the LP nomination (and I'd give him about an 80% chance of that right now). First, if Barr can get to Nader territory of 2-3% nationally, that'll be the margin of victory in states like Nevada, Colorado, Washington, and Oregon -- swing states with Libertarian-leaning populations.

Second -- and this is even cooler, in my view -- Barr was a Congressman from Georgia. SUSA did a baseline 50-state poll a month ago that showed Obama down only 13 in Georgia -- which is impressive, given that Kerry lost by 16 there. Badnarik got only half a percent in GA in 2004. If Barr can pull 10% or more in that state, Obama could conceivably make a play for it.

Incredibly enough, that's not the only deep South state Obama could challenge for. There's an outside shot that Ten Commandments Judge Roy Moore will run for Constitution Party nominee. Moore could conceivably swing Alabama to Obama as well, given that SUSA puts Obama down only 14 in a state Kerry lost by 26.

It's going to be a fun election...

 

Blogger Mentarch on 4/06/2008 5:46 PM:

"It's going to be a fun election..."

Sure will ...

;-)